First principle: count back from the next period
Because the luteal phase is fixed (~14 days) and the follicular phase varies, ovulation ≈ next menses minus 14 days.
| Cycle length | Ovulation ≈ day | Mid‑luteal progesterone ≈ day |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 14 | 21 |
| 35 | 21 | 28 |
| 24 | 10 | 17 |
The fertile window is ~5 days before to the day of ovulation (sperm survival + oocyte lifespan).
Cervical mucus as a bioassay
- Estrogen (peri‑ovulatory): thin, acellular, high‑spinnbarkeit, ferning — sperm‑permeable.
- Progesterone (luteal): thick, scant, impenetrable.
The classic timing error 🚩 (a pitfall worth its own line)
Discriminators
- Normal cycle 21–35 days, menses 2–7 days: usually ovulatory — routine ovulation confirmation is often unnecessary (Concept 31).
Pitfalls
- Rigid day‑21 testing; ignoring cycle length when interpreting a low progesterone.
Pearls
- 🎯 Ovulation = next period − 14 days. Time the mid‑luteal progesterone to her cycle.
- 🩺 "Egg‑white" mucus is a free, patient‑reportable ovulation predictor.
Next → What happens to bleeding when ovulation fails? (Concept 14).